Institutions generally predict that the U.S. government shutdown will last at least 10 days, with the 15th being a key Node.

On October 9, Wall Street institutions provided the following analysis regarding the duration of the U.S. government shutdown: Morgan Stanley: U.S. Treasury Options indicate that the government shutdown, which began on October 1, will last at least 10 days, and could last as long as 29 days. Goldman Sachs: It is unlikely that the government shutdown will extend beyond the military pay day of October 15. If the shutdown is still ongoing at that time, active-duty military personnel will not receive their pay, which has never been allowed to happen. Additionally, data from the prediction platform Polymarket shows that the market believes there is an 85% chance that the U.S. government shutdown will only end after October 15; the likelihood of the U.S. Congress passing a spending bill before the end of October is 76%. (Jin10)