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The global market is waiting for Powell to "indicate the direction"; will the dovish signals arrive as expected?
After implementing the first interest rate cut of the year last week, global investors are focused on the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, eagerly searching for any clues regarding the timing of the next rate cut.
Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech on the economic outlook at an event in Rhode Island at 00:35 Beijing time on Thursday. This speech is crucial as it comes right after the Federal Reserve's latest rate cut decision, which has triggered a new round of rises in global stock markets.
Although historical experience suggests that Powell may not release any breakthrough signals this time, the market will still analyze his statements word by word to assess the future path and pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Currently, the interest rate futures market expects that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of its remaining two meetings in October and December. Meanwhile, the Fed's own forecasts suggest that its pace of rate cuts may be more cautious than the market expects.
Analysts point out that Powell may be inclined to continue cutting interest rates this year to prevent a significant rise in the unemployment rate. Last week, he attributed the reasons for lowering rates to signs of weakness in the labor market, stating that this move falls under the category of "risk management." Recent data shows that U.S. job growth has noticeably slowed, the unemployment rate is gradually rising, and the time required for workers to find reemployment has also extended.
However, another challenge cannot be ignored: inflation levels are rising again, with the latest year-on-year CPI increase approaching 3%, deviating from the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. Policymakers are facing dual risks - they must maintain price stability while ensuring a healthy job market.
Currently, the Federal Reserve's policy balance seems to lean more towards "preserving jobs." Most officials judge that the inflationary pressure caused by former President Trump's new tariff measures will be temporary. However, Powell also admitted that there is no perfect solution to decision-making and that vigilance towards inflation trends must be maintained.
It is expected that Powell will not directly make a clear commitment in this speech, but will systematically elaborate on his assessment of the economic outlook, providing key basis for future policy direction.