Recently, due to Congress's failure to pass the funding appropriation bill, the U.S. federal government began implementing a partial shutdown at midnight on October 1. This event has had far-reaching effects on multiple areas.

First, the government shutdown has forced a large number of federal employees to take leave or remain on unpaid standby, with estimates ranging between 750,000 and 900,000. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has also been severely affected, with over 90% of its staff being furloughed, leaving only a small number to maintain market oversight and emergency enforcement duties.

Secondly, this event may affect the release of important economic data. Key economic indicators such as the non-farm payroll report and inflation indices (CPI/PCE) may be delayed or interrupted due to the agency shutdown. This will undoubtedly pose challenges for market analysis and decision-making.

The financial markets reacted differently to this event. Most stock indices showed a mixed trend, while gold prices surged, reaching a new high. The dollar exchange rate faced downward pressure. Meanwhile, private sector employment data showed signs of weakness, with the ADP report indicating a net loss of 32,000 jobs in the private sector in September.

In this context, the market's expectations for a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's October meeting have warmed. Currently, it is widely anticipated that the Fed will lower the interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% at the meeting on October 28-29. However, if the government shutdown continues, it could severely disrupt the disclosure of economic signals and the basis for policy judgments.

The cryptocurrency market has also been affected by this event. The price of Bitcoin has returned to around $27,000, and the entire cryptocurrency sector has gained support against the backdrop of a weakening dollar. The market focus is currently centered on three key factors: ETF approvals, regulatory developments, and the movements of large holders.

Looking ahead, gold and precious metals may continue to be supported by safe-haven demand and a weak dollar. The performance of risk assets such as technology stocks, growth stocks, and cryptocurrencies may exhibit a highly elastic response around policy direction. Market participants need to closely monitor the progress of government shutdowns and their impact on economic data releases and policy-making in order to make informed investment decisions.