XRP holds the $3 mark! With Whale dumping and network cooling down, can Ripple welcome a breakthrough?

As of the end of August 2025, Ripple (XRP) has stabilized around $3 after forming a bullish flag pattern on the daily chart. Technical indicators have released breakout signals, but on-chain data shows that whales continue dumping and ledger activity is slowing down, leading the market to remain cautiously optimistic about the short-term trend.

Technical Analysis: Bullish Flag Breakout Signal

The XRP daily chart shows that the price is consolidating above 3 dollars, forming a typical bullish flag pattern.

According to Rose Premium Signals data, if a breakout is confirmed, the target price levels are 3.6234 USD, 3.8608 USD, and 4.1066 USD.

The market capitalization grew by 8.5% to $132 billion in the second quarter, solidifying its position as the fourth largest cryptocurrency by market cap. The return to the $3 mark is seen as an important psychological and technical milestone, but market sentiment remains cautious.

Whale selling pressure cannot be ignored

(Source: CryptoQuant)

On-chain analyst Maartunn pointed out that large holders have been continuously reducing their positions recently, with evident and ongoing selling pressure.

This kind of capital outflow may suppress the upward momentum of prices while releasing positive signals from a technical perspective.

The network activity in the second quarter also showed a cooling down:

Daily active addresses: decreased by 41.2% compared to the previous quarter to 75,200.

New addresses: down 46.2% to 305,800.

Nevertheless, compared to the same period last year, the number of active addresses has still increased by 165.5%, and the number of new addresses has grown by 219.8%, indicating that the long-term user base is still expanding.

Stablecoins and technological upgrades drive long-term prospects

(Source: Messari)

Ripple's USD-pegged stablecoin RLUSD reached a market capitalization of $65.9 million at the end of the second quarter, becoming the largest stablecoin on the XRP Ledger.

At the same time, the introduction of new tokens such as USDC and EURØP has increased the total market capitalization of tokens issued on the XRPL by 35.7% to $38.2 million.

From a technical perspective, the XRPL EVM sidechain officially went live on June 30, achieving compatibility with the Ethereum ecosystem; the Rippled V2.5.0 upgrade introduced permissioned decentralized exchanges and TokenEscrow support, expanding the developer toolkit.

Network activity cooling down and changes in trading structure

The Messari report shows that the average daily trading volume in the second quarter decreased by 20% to 1.6 million transactions, with payment transactions accounting for 60.2%, while order book listings (OfferCreate) fell to 29.6%.

As of the end of the quarter, XRPL has 1,008 nodes and 187 validators, with over 58% of nodes upgraded to the latest version.

It is worth noting that in April, there was a security incident where a Ripple employee was targeted by a phishing attack. Although it has been resolved, the official recommendation is for high-risk users to change their keys.

Supply Mechanism and Deflationary Effect

Ripple releases 1 billion XRP from the custody account every month, and the unused portion will be re-locked into a new contract.

The online transaction fee mechanism continues to burn tokens, and approximately 14.1 million XRP (worth about 31.7 million USD) have been burnt since its launch, providing a certain level of deflationary support to the market.

Conclusion

XRP is currently in a situation where technical bullishness coexists with fundamental pressure: the flag pattern and market capitalization growth support the breakout expectation, but Whale dumping and a decrease in network activity limit short-term upside potential.

If the bulls want to push the price above 3.62 dollars, they need to find new momentum amidst the whale fund outflows and the market's wait-and-see sentiment.