XRP Price Prediction: Whale sold 240 million tokens in September! Price pressured and fell below $2.8, can tokenization of trillion-dollar market be the key to reversal?

On-chain data shows that whale addresses holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP accumulated 350 million tokens in late August, but urgently dumped 240 million XRP in early September, causing their holdings percentage to drop from 12.19% to 11.77%. This movement resonates with XRP's price being repeatedly blocked at 2.8 dollars. This article will deeply analyze the trend of XRP in September and its long-term value logic by combining changes in holdings, historical seasonal patterns, and the outlook of the tokenization track.

Whale Movement Reversal: Accumulation in August vs Dumping in September

According to Santiment data, XRP Whale groups (holding 10 million to 100 million coins) actively increased their holdings from August 16 to 31, with the total holdings rising from 7.5 billion coins to 7.85 billion coins, and the percentage increasing from 11.67% to 12.19%. This behavior supports XRP's price in holding the $3 mark.

However, the situation changed drastically in early September: as of September 3, the holdings of whales plummeted to 7.61 billion coins, with 240 million coins (approximately 672 million USD) sold off within 3 days, and the proportion of holdings dropped to 11.77%. This short-term concentrated profit-taking behavior exerted direct pressure on prices.

Historical Performance in September: Mixed Results but Three Consecutive Years of Gains Recently

CryptoRank statistics show that XRP's historical performance in September was notably divergent:

• Fell 20.1% in September 2021;
• However, there has been a continuous increase in the three years from 2022 to 2024, with a significant rise of 46.2% in September 2022.

Despite the recent seasonal bullishness, whale selling has cast a shadow over the September trend this year.

Tokenization of the Trillion Dollar Track: The Potential Value Explosive Point of XRP

Despite short-term pressure, XRP's long-term narrative in the asset tokenization space remains imaginative. Boston Consulting Group (BCG) predicts that by 2030, the scale of tokenized assets will account for 10% of global GDP, which translates to a market of $16.4 trillion. Ripple has been continuously positioning itself in this space for years, and its XRP Ledger (XRPL) is regarded as an ideal tokenization infrastructure due to its high throughput and low fee characteristics.

If XRP can capture 15% of the tokenization market (corresponding to a value of $2.46 trillion), and these assets are all backed by XRP as reserves, then theoretically the price of XRP could reach $41 per coin. However, it should be noted that the current total scale of tokenized assets is only $306.8 million, which is a huge gap from the actual target.

Cross-border Payments and Tokenization: Price Speculation Driven by Dual Engines

A more realistic assumption is that XRP becomes the core currency for cross-border payment settlements: if it processes 3% of the global GDP flow by 2030 (approximately $49.2 trillion), and 20% of that requires XRP as a liquidity reserve, the demand scale reaches $98.4 billion, corresponding to an XRP price of $16.55. If we add market speculative premiums, the price could surge into the $40-50 range.

In an extremely optimistic "to the moon scenario" (where it simultaneously dominates the tokenization and cross-border payment markets), the price of XRP could exceed $100.

Short-term risks and long-term opportunities coexist

The core contradictions currently faced by XRP include:

• Short-term liquidity pressure caused by whale dumping;
• The tokenization market is still in its early stages, and the actual adoption progress is questionable;
• Regulatory uncertainties such as the Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit.

However, Ripple's ongoing efforts in central bank digital currencies (CBDC), stablecoins, and institutional partnerships provide foundational support for its ecosystem expansion.

Conclusion

Whale concentration selling and repeated testing of the $2.8 resistance level suggest that XRP's market in September may be weakly volatile. However, the long-term narrative of tokenization and cross-border payments remains solid. Investors should pay attention to the development of the XRPL ecosystem, progress in institutional collaborations, and changes in the overall cryptocurrency market sentiment. In the short-term volatility, it is advisable to maintain strategic focus and closely track on-chain holdings changes and fundamental catalyst events.