Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Holds Firm at $110,000, Diverging Trend from Gold and Stocks Sparks Rebound Hopes

Despite the net outflow of $160.1 million in the U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF last Friday, the Bitcoin price managed to remain stable above the $110,000 mark due to a total net inflow of $250.3 million throughout the week. This indicates that institutional demand is still providing crucial support. Meanwhile, Ethereum is facing greater selling pressure due to continued outflows from the ETF funds. In the future, U.S. economic data, Fed policies, and the flow of ETF funds will be key factors in determining the next movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Bitcoin hovers around $110,000, with weekly inflows countering daily outflows

On Friday (September 6), the price of Bitcoin fell 0.39% to close at $110,263, remaining above the key level of $110,000 for the second day in a row. The day's decline was largely influenced by outflows from the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF market. Last Friday, spot Bitcoin ETF issuers reported a net outflow of $160.1 million, according to Farside Investors.

In addition, the weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report has heightened market concerns. The unemployment rate in the U.S. rose to 4.3% in August (up from 4.2% in July), and non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000 (compared to 79,000 in July), far below economists' expectations of 75,000.

However, from the weekly data perspective, the US spot Bitcoin ETF market recorded a net inflow of $250.3 million, continuing the positive momentum from the previous week, providing support for Bitcoin, which rose by 1.76% this week. According to data from Farside Investors, the main weekly capital inflow came from:

• iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) net inflow 434.3 million USD.
• Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) net inflow of 33.2 million USD.
• Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) net inflow of $25.1 million.

Meanwhile, the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB), and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw a total outflow of $228.1 million. Despite two consecutive weeks of net inflows, the price of Bitcoin remains significantly lower than the historical high of $123,731 reached on August 14, and has dropped 2.01% this week, underperforming the S&P 500 index and gold, which rose 1.52% and 7.43%, respectively.

The market intelligence platform Santiment commented on the divergence between Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market and gold, stating: "In this two-week divergence case, when Bitcoin (and altcoins) continue to lag behind global economic price trends, the likelihood of them 'catching up' is very high. The greater the gap between the stock market and Bitcoin, the more it proves that cryptocurrencies are about to rebound."

Ethereum under pressure, ETF funds continue to flow out

Unlike Bitcoin, which is holding its ground due to weekly ETF fund inflows, Ethereum (ETH) is facing greater selling pressure. Last Saturday, the price of Ethereum fell 0.75%, closing at $4,275, reversing the previous day's gains. Since reaching an all-time high of $4,958 on August 24, investors have been locking in profits.

Last Friday, the U.S. Spot Ethereum ETF market reported a net outflow of $446.8 million, resulting in a total net outflow of $766.3 million for the week, which severely impacted market sentiment. This week, Ethereum has declined by 2.54%, underperforming Bitcoin's drop of 2.01%.

Market Outlook: Key Factors Influencing BTC Price Trends

The following macro and market factors will drive Bitcoin's recent price outlook:

• Legislative Progress: Progress of the Market Structure Bill currently being reviewed by the U.S. Congress.
• U.S. Economic Data: Upcoming release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and initial jobless claims.
• Fed Policy and Statements: Any hints regarding interest rate policy.
• U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows.

Bullish Scenario: If the risk of a U.S. economic recession alleviates, the Fed issues dovish signals, cryptocurrency legislation gains bipartisan support, and ETF funds continue to flow in, the price of Bitcoin is expected to rise to its historical high of $123,731.

Bearish Scenario: If the risk of stagflation in the U.S. rises, the Fed's rhetoric turns hawkish, legislation encounters obstacles, or ETF funds continue to flow out, Bitcoin may drop towards $100,000.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

(Source: TradingView)

Bitcoin is currently trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), but still above the 200-day EMA. Although short-term momentum has weakened, the long-term trend remains bullish, and $100,000 is still a key long-term support level.

• Upside target: If the price breaks above the 50-day EMA, it may pave the way to rise towards $115,000. If it can firmly stay above $115,000, it may test the historical high of $123,731.
• Downside risks: The recent support level is $107,500, while $100,000 is an important psychological barrier.

Ethereum Outlook

(Source: TradingView)

Despite the pullback this week, Ethereum still remains above the 50-day and 200-day EMA, indicating that it still has a bullish tendency.

• Upside target: If it can break through $4,500, the bulls may test the $4,958 high from August 24 again. If it can solidly break $4,958, it may pave the way for a rise towards $6,000.
• Downside risk: A break below the $4,085 support level and the 50-day EMA could put the $3,563 support level to the test.

Conclusion

Bitcoin and Ethereum are in different market stages. Despite facing macroeconomic headwinds, Bitcoin has shown greater resilience thanks to support from weekly ETF inflows, while Ethereum is under greater pressure due to capital outflows. Santiment's "catch-up" theory offers investors an interesting perspective, suggesting that if the gap between the two continues to widen, Ethereum may experience a strong rebound in the future. However, the ultimate trend will depend on the upcoming macroeconomic data and the Fed's decisions, as well as the sustainability of ETF fund flows, all of which will jointly determine the next direction of the crypto market.