XRP Today News: Broke below the psychological barrier of 3 dollars, whales have sold 160 million tokens in the past two weeks, increasing selling pressure.

XRP failed to break through the resistance level of $3.2 after reaching a local high of $3.1860, subsequently retreating below the key psychological level of $3. Over the past two weeks, whales have cumulatively dumped 160 million XRP (approximately $480 million), intensifying market selling pressure.

Despite profit-taking pressure, the REX-Osprey XRPR ETF will launch this week, making it the first product in the US to provide investors with exposure to XRP spot. Its initial capital flow trends may provide important references for the approval of subsequent spot ETFs.

01 Market Dynamics: Whales Take Profits, XRP Faces Resistance and Drops

XRP's recent performance highlights conflicting signals in the market. The token encountered resistance after reaching a four-week high of $3.1860, failing to break through the $3.2 level. The price then fell below the psychological level of $3, dropping 1.07% on Monday (September 15), closing at $2.9986.

Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez reported that in the past two weeks, whales have sold 160 million XRP (worth approximately $480 million). Such large-scale dumping is often seen as a signal of large holders' lack of confidence in the short-term outlook.

Despite the dumping by whales, retail investors remain optimistic, mainly driven by expectations of a potential approval for the XRP spot ETF. This divergence creates market uncertainty, with XRP currently seeking support in the $2.90-$2.95 range.

02 Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Level Distribution

(Source: TradingView)

From a technical perspective, XRP is at a critical position. The current support level is in the range of $2.90-$2.95, which has been tested multiple times in recent trading sessions. If it is confirmed to break below this range, it may open up further downside potential, targeting $2.70.

In terms of resistance levels, XRP faces important resistances at the psychological barrier of $3.00, $3.20, and $3.335. The $3.335 level is emphasized by analysts as a key confirmation point that requires daily or multi-day closes to hold.

Technical indicators show short-term weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped from overbought levels, and the decrease in trading volume also supports the view of reduced buyer enthusiasm. Analyst Egrag Crypto emphasizes that a daily closing above $3.33 is needed to confirm a bullish breakout.

03 ETF Outlook: REX-Osprey Products Coming Soon

Market participants are closely watching the launch of the REX-Osprey XRPR ETF, which will be listed this week. This will be a spot product structured under the Investment Company Act of 1940, holding actual XRP, cash, government bonds, and some derivatives.

Like many ETF issuers, REX-Osprey chose the Investment Company Act of 1940 rather than the Securities Act of 1933. The 1940 Act regulates investment companies, including mutual funds, ETFs, and closed-end funds, allowing investment in multiple asset classes.

The initial liquidity trend of this product may inform cautious investors about how the market might react if the SEC approves a spot ETF. This is seen as a litmus test for the potential success of the XRP spot ETF market.

04 Institutional Participation: BlackRock's Potential Layout

Despite the upcoming launch of the REX-Osprey XRPR ETF, BlackRock remains silent on its XRP spot ETF plans. Market analysts believe that BlackRock's absence is due to the SEC's plan to introduce a standardized crypto ETF framework.

BlackRock met with the SEC's crypto working group in May to discuss ETF approval standards. The SEC's standardized crypto ETF framework could pave the way for the ETF issuer to apply for the iShares XRP Trust.

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) have been pioneers in the crypto spot ETF market. Since their launch, IBIT and ETHA have reported net inflows of $59.8 billion and $12.9 billion respectively, driving BTC and ETH to all-time highs.

05 Regulatory Environment: Legal Uncertainty Continues to Affect

The ongoing legal dispute between XRP and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) continues to create uncertainty regarding its classification as a security or utility token. As of September 2025, no resolution has been reached, leading to regulatory ambiguity that hinders investor participation.

Despite the settlement between Ripple and the SEC improving the legal status of XRP, regulatory risks still exist. The court established a detailed legal framework, determining that XRP is not considered a security when traded on public exchanges, but constitutes a security when sold to institutional investors.

This partial victory allows XRP to continue playing a role in cross-border payments, serving over 300 financial institutions worldwide through Ripple's On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) solution. The settlement resulted in Ripple being fined $125 million, a reduction from the initial amount.

06 Price Prediction: Multiple Scenario Analysis

The price outlook for XRP depends on corporate, macroeconomic, and regulatory events. Bearish scenarios include legislative stagnation, blue-chip companies avoiding XRP as a reserve asset, the OCC delaying or rejecting Ripple's application for a U.S. chartered bank, and SWIFT maintaining its global dominance. These events could push XRP towards the next key support levels of $2.8 and $2.5.

Bullish scenarios include BlackRock's application for the iShares XRP Trust, SEC approval of the XRP spot ETF, blue-chip companies adopting XRP as reserve assets, more payment platforms integrating Ripple technology, Ripple obtaining a U.S. charter banking license, the Senate passing the market structure bill, and SWIFT losing market share in global remittances to Ripple. These events could propel XRP beyond $3, paving the way for a push towards $3.2.

A sustained breakthrough of $3.20 may allow bulls to challenge the resistance level of $3.35 and target the historical high of $3.66. Coincodex predicts that in 2025, XRP could trade between $2.98 and $3.62, with an average annual price of about $3.32.

07 On-chain Data: Whale Accumulation and Wallet Distribution

Despite recent dumping, on-chain data shows some positive signals. Whale wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP have increased their holdings from 6.31 billion to 6.72 billion over the past three months. This growth indicates that medium holders are actively accumulating, which can stabilize prices by increasing on-chain demand.

Medium-sized holders' accumulation usually precedes a sustained recovery, as these holders are less likely to trigger a flash crash compared to short-term leveraged traders. The funding rate has also decreased from a peak of 0.0520% to around 0.0100%, indicating a more balanced market with reduced forced liquidations and leverage risk.

Lower funding rates reduce the risk of forced deleveraging and support clearer price action as spot demand regains dominance. This on-chain activity indicates that despite large whales dumping, the market fundamentals remain solid.

Conclusion

XRP is at a critical crossroads. The battle between whale dumping and retail optimism is intensifying at the psychological threshold of $3. The launch of the REX-Osprey XRPR ETF could serve as a litmus test for a larger-scale XRP spot ETF market, while BlackRock's potential entry could change the game.

In the coming months, regulatory developments, institutional adoption, and broader market sentiment will determine whether XRP breaks through its historical high or retests lower support levels. Traders and investors should closely monitor on-chain metrics, regulatory updates, and signs of institutional interest, as these factors will shape XRP's trajectory in the last quarter of 2025.