Over $4.3 billion in crypto Options are set to expire today, analysts warn: If Bitcoin falls below $115,200, it may dip to $105,500.

Under the dual pressure of options expiring today (September 19) and the historic large-scale expirations next week, traders are preparing for potential fluctuations. Today, over $4.5 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options will expire. Although the market has rebounded following the approval of the ETF, analysis platforms such as Glassnode warn that if Bitcoin fails to hold the key support level of $115,200, it may face the risk of dipping to $105,500.

Over $4.3 billion in crypto options expire today

Despite the recent rebound in the cryptocurrency market, traders and investors widely expect that prices may experience a dip against the backdrop of today's Options expiration. This event will also lay the groundwork for the upcoming largest Options expiration, which could have a significant impact on the entire cryptocurrency market.

According to data from the largest derivatives exchange Deribit, today (September 19) 30,000 Bitcoin options will expire, with a nominal value of $3.52 billion. The put/call ratio is 1.23, indicating bearish sentiment as traders continue to increase put bets in anticipation of next week's quarterly settlement.

However, in the past 24 hours, the bearish/bullish ratio was 0.77, with bullish options trading volume exceeding 22,300 contracts, while bearish options trading volume was 17,250 contracts. This indicates that options traders are cautious and are waiting for clues ahead of the next significant delivery.

The maximum pain price for Bitcoin is $114,000, far below the current market price. Options traders may attempt to push the Bitcoin price towards the maximum pain point, where put options are mainly concentrated around the strike prices of $100,000 to $108,000.

At the same time, over 177,000 Ethereum Options will also expire on Deribit, with a nominal value of 800 million dollars, and a put/call ratio of 1.0. This indicates a balanced bet among traders, rather than the bearish bias mentioned at the beginning of the article. In the past 24 hours, the trading volume of call options was 66,142, slightly higher than the trading volume of put options (62,281), with a put/call ratio of 0.77.

In addition, the maximum pain point price for Ethereum is $4,500, still lower than the current $4,539. Notably, at the $4,500 strike price, the total bet on call options ($22 million) exceeds that of put options ($17 million). This indicates a potential downside bias, as buyers of call options may attempt to push the price toward that level to minimize losses.

Glassnode Prediction: Bitcoin Faces Downward Risk

(Source: Glassnode)

After the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved general listing standards for crypto ETFs, the crypto market experienced a rebound, with the price of Bitcoin briefly approaching $118,000. The market generally expects the price to rise to $120,000 after the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.

According to Glassnode's data, 95% of holders are in profit, which increases the risk of profit-taking. The futures market has seen a short squeeze, and the open interest in options reached a historic high of 500,000 BTC before the major expiry date on September 26. Bulls need to hold the key level of $115,200 to continue rising. Otherwise, the subsequent dip could trigger Bitcoin to fall to $105,500.

Next Friday's expiration date is a special "triple witching day," which combines weekly, monthly, and quarterly expiration dates, thereby concentrating liquidity and capital flow. Bitcoin's maximum pain price is close to $110,000, which is the level at which most options will expire worthless. This indicates that prices may be pulled toward this key level around the delivery date.

Conclusion

Today's options expiration brings a layer of uncertainty to the market, but its impact may only be short-term fluctuations. The real test will be the historic large-scale expiration coming next week, which will have a more profound effect on market liquidity and price trends. Currently, Bitcoin is battling around a key technical support level, while the "maximum pain" theory in the options market suggests potential downside risks. This indicates that, although recent market sentiment has surged due to macro positive factors, the complex dynamics of the derivatives market may dominate in the short term. For traders, closely monitoring the key support level of $115,200 and the potential pull of the maximum pain will be crucial in navigating the market trends in the coming days.